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Osterhorn
Friday,
10.08.2001 |
Market Report |
The
US $ in EURO
0,8940
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What happened this week: Generally
an exciting week with the focus of the interest entirely on the
USA. The flurry of interest seen in America in the previous week
was noticed by the world markets this week. This resulted in
higher asking levels in the USA and other markets including ours
were profiting from the situation which encouraged many buyers
to take buying decisions. Those who were available and had still
need to buy came to the market. Interest was seen again across
the board with prices being steady on males and on full asking
levels on cows. With our asking levels being continuously above
the market lows during the last weeks one could also say prices
were firmer. With the present price levels German hides remain
attractively priced and the favourable spread widened even more
with the rising US price levels. In some cases the situation is
getting peculiar. Considering dairy cows the gap today between
European dairy cows and their US counterparts has reached around
USD 10,00 just based on the fact that the ban in Korea for
German/Dutch hides has not been lifted. This forces Korean
tanners to purchase cows in America
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and has made them fairly uncompetitive versus
productions in China. It does not seem that Korean tanners can
handle such a situation for long considering that both are
supplying the same markets. Some – including ourselves –
were wondering if the recent developments are the change to the
better and the turnaround in the market. Considering that we
still miss news from the leather market, poor general economical
outlook in most parts of the world and unsettled doubts how
tanners are or will digest the recent slump in the market we do
not believe that the last days were just more than a technical
reaction. One could even raise the question how serious the
sales were, considering that the US statistical data itself has
not been proved to be faithful in the recent past. So, why not
publishing figures for market cosmetics? Indeed, it would not be
a surprise if hide suppliers and tanners have a mutual interest
to stabilize the market to save existing hide and leather
contracts and to catch leather buyers interest by the attraction
of a rising market. This scenario is only fictive and even if
there would be some truth in it we will in our business not get
rid of the physical
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supply/demand ratio added by cash-flow and warehouse
problems . The kill:
Slightly picking up with the first part of the country
returning form the holidays. Still good on males and low on cows.
What do we expect? For our market we maintain our last
weeks statement. Without having a clear picture about a) the
leather demand after the holidays b) how many hides/leathers
might be stuck in the pipeline c) if all tanners can handle the
cash-flow problems a realistic outlook cant be made. For the
moment the market has come to a hold and for the next weeks in
quite solid state. The weaker USD starts to burden calculations.
The expected better kills towards the end of the month should be
absorbed by additional short term demand from various tanners
who have still to come to the market after their holidays. So,
we keep our expectations of a narrow trading range just be
influenced by individual sales, further currency news or
specific company news from the trade. Dairy cows might even look
a bit undervalued and have some upward potential while we
consider bulls fairly accurately priced at present. Expecting
female kill to rise and male kill to decline in the medium term
prices may already reflect today what happens soon.
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| Type |
Weight
range |
Avg.
green weight |
Salted
weight |
Avg.
weight salted |
Price
per kg green weight |
Trend |
| Ox/heifers |
15/24,5
kg |
22,0/23,5
kg |
13/22
kg |
20/21
kg |
DM
4,80 |
Steady |
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25/29,5
kg |
27,5/28,5
kg |
22/27
kg |
25/26
kg |
DM
4,00 |
Steady |
|
Dairy
cows
|
15/24,5
kg
|
22,5/23,5
kg
|
13/22
kg
|
20/21
kg
|
DM
4,60
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Firmish
|
| |
25/29,5
kg
|
27,5/28,5
kg
|
22/27
kg
|
25/26
kg
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DM
3,90
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Firmish
|
| |
30/+
kg
|
33,5/35,5
kg
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27/+
kg
|
29/31
kg
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DM
3,30
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Stead
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| Bulls |
25/29,5
kg |
27,5/28,5
kg |
22/
27 kg |
25/26
kg |
DM
4,20 |
Steady |
| |
30/39,5
kg |
36,0/37,0
kg |
24/34
kg |
31/33
kg |
DM
3,75 |
Steady |
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40/+
kg |
45,0/48,0
kg |
34/+
kg |
38/40
kg |
DM
3,40 |
Steady |
| Thirds |
15/+
kg |
25,0/27,5
kg |
13/+
kg |
22/26
kg |
DM
3,30 |
Steady |
| Thirds
bulls |
30/+
kg |
38,0/40,0
kg |
24/+
kg |
33/36
kg |
DM
3,20 |
Steady |
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