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What happened this week: Another
report where we could have copied most of last weeks into this
weeks. Sales were good again but as already for some weeks now.
again to regular and good name customers. All of the sales and
interest was for bulls this week and the volume of interest was
bigger than what we wanted or had to sell. This is what everyone
would call a firm market, but again we do not believe that the
real fundamentals for a firm market with rising prices have been
reached. We have just a number of events which we were warning
already many weeks ago. June/July everyone was so de- and
impressed by the slump of prices that it was hard to find anyone
who was not predicting a long lasting further slide and many
buyers went into their holidays expecting to return and to buy
another x % cheaper. So did many leather buyers and consequently
we are now in a period where predominantly tanners now finally
have to take purchasing decisions
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with a market having levelled out in the meantime.
Customers of a certain quality feel now that the price levels
reached are attractive and they don’t meet sellers who are
willing to listen to any substantial lower bids anymore. So, the
few good ones try to secure the levels. So far, so good, as this
is all still the frame of an orderly balance between physical
demand and supply. The problem now is, that we have plenty of
market politics going on. We have various interested parties who
would like to see prices higher in October. Tanners who have
bought hides in volume over the summer, as well as hide
suppliers who have decided not to sell and to come with a
reasonably priced inventory out of the summer. Since this is the
speculative part of the game it is dangerous as it was in
April/May when also then speculation was the driving force and
not the fundamentals. We were mentioning the yo-yo effect
already some time ago and hope that the trade can still avoid
it. It is
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neither good for the whole, nor will it solve the
problems of the individuals betting on it. Everyone should
remember, that nothing has changed since mid July and so there
is no reason to change the attitudes.
The kill: Same
as in the previous week with still the majority of the
production in bulls. What do we expect? The tone for
males has now changed from neutral to friendly. Females are well
sheltered by the high cow prices in the USA. So, short term we
do not see any downward potential anymore. For the coming weeks
we still have a decent list of male buyers, who have to buy
hides. This will keep the male market steady to firm. Cows
entirely depend on further orders from Asia which haven’t been
seen this week. However, no reason to lower prices. Who has to
buy, can or has to pay present levels. We still do not expect
any major changes, but if any it will be on the upside rather
then on the downside. In total we still think that the supply is
good enough to satisfy the needs if all hides are offered to the
buyers.
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