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What happened this week: Real
news with very little to report due to a lack of activity. From
the European perspective the situation did
not change at all. Italian tanners continued to try to
depress the cow market, but as far as we are concerned not with
too much success. Some tanners pretended, that they were able to
buy another 3-5 % cheaper than in the previous week, but except
some single load businesses we dont believe, that a lot of
volume was done. With the present abattoir purchasing prices
sellers have not really a chance to lower prices and so most of
the trade decided not to accept the bids and consequently very
few sales were concluded. Talking about males the situation is
still the same and so completely different. Automotive tanners
still suffer from supply bottlenecks and the shortage is even
extended now by the side leather tanners who have postponed
their purchases for so long, that they have no choice other than
to grab whatever is suitable. Here starts another problem.
Falling avg. weights as a consequence of killing younger cattle
and changing feeding methods do not anymore produce enough
plump, good quality hides. Missing alternatives create
consequently a very
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difficult situation as the existing finished leather
contracts have to be fulfilled and inventories are exhausted.
Having described this we also have ton consider this as one of
the reasons why we dont manage to bring the abattoir buying
prices in line to reflect the hide and leather market. Various
processors defend their supply of bulls at every price and
become so an easy victim for the butchers to overpay also the
cows, despite the fact that their price level and trend is by
far less positve. The falling USD and the substantial pressure
on upholstery price levels do not justify the prices paid
presently for this type of material. Having said this we have,
however to admit that at least lighter weight dairy cows are
presently the most economical hide one can buy on the market.
Having seen at the end of the week again the impressing sales
volumes in the USA one can assume, that the spread between males
and females has to narrow by a final increase of prices for
cowhides. Sales during the week were reasonably light and at
least in our case only a few spot deals were concluded. The
only really interesting activity came from Asia were we have had
the first orders since long for dairy cows, but way below asking
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Levels and so we turned them down and wait now to see
if our counters are going to be accepted next week. Repeating
again, that people want to buy what is not available and dont
want to buy what we have to offer describes again best the
situation. The kill: The first and only week in May where
we had a full killing week. So number increased a bit and
something like a normal production and supply planning was
possible. Next week will again only start on the Tuesday and so
numbers will fall back again. Intersting was a comment from a
vet who confirmed the ongoing slaughter of cattle under 24 month,
but who was also positive for much heavier weights in the second
half of the year. Lets hope he is right. What do we expect?
We have no reason why the situation should change
short term. Bull will remain firm until the supply gets better
and prices might even firm still a little. The decline of cows
might come already to an end, provided the interest from Asia
was not a fake. However, medium term we are anyway quite
optimistic, that demand will return for cows in some weeks and
prices for the lighter weights will get back into line. Asian
buyers will return to the market and only the USD could prevent
cows from settling or firming again.
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