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What happened this week:
The hope for a clarification in the Middle East has been disappointed
and postponed. Although the risk of war has risen today again. So, those who tried to wait for a decision about
purchases this week were in many cases forced again to decide or
to wait again. Many decided to buy. The sharp increase of the USD
towards the end of the week - back to the levels we had seen for
many weeks - supported export sales and revenues. Interest was again
across the board and selling prices were as expected on or
just about asking
levels. If there was any concentration in the demand, it was seen
in ox/heifers and dairy cows, as well as again in low grades. With
the firmer USD orders after Wednesday turned into good prices in
which were desperately needed to compensate the unchanged buying
prices at the abattoirs for the month of March. Next week many
long term contracts for bulls have to be renewed and with the
decent sales and the firmer USD the sales position is getting a
bit better and easier. Also for this week there is truth
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in the statement: The situation is better than the
mood. True is also, that the pressure on finished product prices
persist. This was also confirmed by the first reports from the GDS
fair in Duesseldorf. Less visitors, concentration on major names
and brands and strong requests from the retailers to lower prices
for shoes and consequently for leather. Since there is very
little room to lower prices with the present raw material levels,
many decide to reduce selections and quality levels to meet the
requests of their buyers and to secure the orders which are needed
to keep productions running. This is not only the case with side leathers,
but also more and more heard in the upholstery section.
In the automotive business we sense time for a change. Sales and
production in Europe and the USA seem to be fairly under pressure, while the
demand from existing and/or potential customers in the Far East is massively
rising. We dont know the reason, but could imagine, that this
might reflect the expectation for the sales of cars depending on
the regions as well as price. It might finally again
increase the price pressure on finished
leather in this segment. The key question is now, if
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eventual reductions in production can be absorbed by
further penetration of leather in cars. So, the situation is still
characterized by reasonable business with deflationary pressure. The kill:
The kill remains on the same level which we have seen over the
past weeks. We are unfortunately already feeling declining average
weights. In the coming weeks we believe, that this trend is going
to continue while the kill can not be expected to change. What
do we expect? Although it might be boring, but we still not
expect any major changes. The pressure from the currency situation
has been significantly been lifted. Inventories remain pretty low
and many sellers are already fairly well sold forward. With the
good sales seen over the last weeks the pressure on sellers has
been almost eliminated. In a normal situation we would expect under
these conditions even a firmer tone. However, massive pressure on
leather prices and finished products, the uncertainty about the
global economy and political situation does not permit sellers to ask
for higher prices yet. Lower kills in many parts of the world and
low inventories protect
the markets on the other side from further declines.
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