|
What happened this week:
Trading and business activity was light this week. In Germany
business was again interrupted by a holiday in the catholic parts
on Thursday. Most companies took a long break, which included also
abattoirs. Most sellers are already settled with their sales for
the coming weeks if not months and the with kill being on record
lows domestic activity was almost inexistent apart from the final
long term programs which still had to be fixed for the month of
June. Overseas demand – in particular again from Asia for dairy
cows and ox/heifers – continued to be strong and with the change
of the market tone in the USA and the firmer USD bids looked even
more attractive than a week ago. However, due to the low slaughter
and the forward sales of the previous weeks we decided to refrain
from new offerings before a better picture about the kill is
available. The Mediterranean remained difficult and more problems
than fun or
|
business derived from this market. In general the
market has arrived to the phase
of consolidation after the long correction. Despite the all
difficulties leather production continues and with the negative
prospects a lot of forward sales were effected by traders and
producers worldwide. As bigger the trader influence got as more
pressure had developed with demand taken from the market
delivering to many the impression, that total need for hides was
more declining than it was really the case. The low slaughter
numbers, however (Germany is down by at least 13-14 % this year)
restricts the supply by so much, that – despite the gloomy
situation – probably less hides are produced than in fact
required by the standard productions.
That is at least how we read it. It is certainly premature
to extrapolate, that this is the turn to a strong and firmer
market, but the assumption, that raw material prices will fall
forever, because leather demand and prices in Europe are so poor
can be discarded. After such a long bear market many will
|
need to remember, that hide and skin supplies have no
correlation with demand and so this applies also periodically to
the prices. We consider, that the North Germany hides are
presently adequately priced and their South German counterparts
require still a massive correction in their negotiations in two
weeks time to settle at acceptable levels. More market movement
and volatility at present would certainly be counterproductive
for the leather business in these difficult times. The
kill: A nightmare and not far away from the levels we have
during the time of BSE. No idea if this is going to be better
before September with the holidays in front of us. What do we
expect? The consolidation is going to continue. A lot of
pressure has been lifted from the market by forward sales and the
low kill. However, we are still in front of the holiday season and
European soakings will decline from now on. So, we have to expect
a steady market with minor price fluctuations depending on the
situation on the currency market, in competing origins and in the
demand deriving from overseas destinations.
|