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What happened this week:
Sales turned out to be quite good as far volumes are concerned.
Almost all markets and destinations were present and even Asian
customers came back for dairy cows after they had been quiet for
some time. Not really a surprise watching the prices for US dairy
cows. Unfortunately we had to fight with the consequences of the
terrorist bombing in Istanbul and the sharp drop in the USD value,
what turned good prices in Asia in just acceptable ones just in an
afternoon. We were able to add to the sales in Asia also a
reasonable amount of low grades, which were not easy to move for
quite some time, but find now constantly better interest.
Obviously from tanners trying to average down their buying prices.
In Europe the situation was mixed for us. The regular clients
booked most of their normal programs which - mainly for bullhides
as usual. Clients were tough in their negotiations and tried
to give the market the final strike by bidding excessively down.
However, at the end it finished in a fair deal for both parties
and we continue to have the impression, that the tanneries who
have
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their regular business are operating with a decent
margin and would if they could take the chance to lock in
most of their raw material needs for the coming months, to prevent
from raw material price risks in the coming months. This applies
certainly only for the premiere league of the European
tanneries and here mainly for automotive and side leather tanners.
Furniture upholstery producers are having most likely a more
difficult time at the moment and it seems, that in general their
order books are not as sufficiently filled yet. They are
definitely the ones suffering most from the present shift of
production to the East and the poor state of the central European
retail markets. The terrorist attacks in Turkey have again proved
how much the raw material and currency markets can be influenced by external effects which are not
predictable at all. Apart from this situation and the threat for
the world community also in the future it is obvious, that this
years holiday season is the determining factor for the next 4-6
weeks. Timing this year is everything. The medium to long term
outlook for the leather business in 2004 remains quite positive
and the tanning industry has realized, that the present
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price level for European hides is very attractive.
Many tanners feel now, that timing is on their side with the long
Season this year. Superficially arguments might be on their side,
but looking a bit deeper into the crystal ball of 2004 supply for
the main hide types could again become faster an issue
than many believe. Many make the mistake, to believe that
the falling prices in 2003 were a success of buying patterns and
can be continued as desired. They are not and so watch out when
the individual positions of the still existing inventories is
clarified. The
kill: The kill remains satisfying, but falling back now every
week. Mainly males had their time and show already significant
declines. The cow kill remains still good and we expect this to
continue until Xmas for reasons which are mainly related to the EU
policy. What do we expect?: Short term the market is still
not ready for a change yet. Sellers in Europe are still too
impressed by the situation since September and try just to get
into the end of the year with no further injuries. Without a
massive round of purchasing from Asia the market just continues to
stumble into the last weeks of 2003 and will offer buyers
further opportunities in the coming weeks. The real market
is going to develop again after that .
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