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What happened this week: The
market and the opinions are pretty divided this week. Some are
calling it quiet and believe, that the heat is off, are others
still finding activity quite reasonable and demand more than
sufficient to dispose of the increased slaughter productions.
Well, as usual the truth might be in the middle. Watching the
European market the pessimists are in the majority. Arzignano is
facing big difficulties with the affluent plant at present, the
Tuscany seems not having started yet into 2004, same applies to
Spain, not to mention the payment delays one is facing from the
South of Europe at the moment. So, the Southern European
business and market is certainly no joy at the moment and
those who mainly focus their sales and activity in this part of
the world will not be too positive . In the Northern parts of
Europe the business situation is quite normal and most productions
are running according to schedule. But, also here many are
concerned about the future, because the great upswing in the
economy is still more forecasted
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than it has arrived and consumers keep their wallets
still rather closed. The strong EURO is a big threat for most of
the European tanning industry and is making plans and projections
difficult and uncertain for everyone who is not producing and
sourcing globally. However, for the moment all this is compensated
by the constantly rising interest from Asia. Albeit the disorderly
and hectic buying of the past weeks has come to an end, interest
remains strong and sales continue to be way higher than normal to
this destination. So, our assumption that the shift of production
already seen for long is going to be followed by the logic of
sourcing, is in full swing now and substantially amplified by the
‘Mad Cow’ case in the USA. In addition to the number of new
clients contacting us, export sellers had the benefit this week of the
sharp correction of the USD value, what was helping calculations
this week as much as they were burdened many weeks before. At the
end sales were pretty good again with most of the sales again
going to the Orient. Interest
was focussed on cows and
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ox/heifers, but also further trials in bulls were as
well concluded. Prices were steady with some increases still
obtained for cows. The price gap between overseas and European
markets continues to widen due to the different market conditions
as stated above. One has to worry how far the discrepancy between
the regions can develop in the coming weeks. The kill: The
kill continues to remain on the high side, but the increase is
almost entirely in the female section. We cant see this to be
related to beef demand and how long this is going to last. Anyway
for the moment numbers are good and it seems for the coming week(s)
this is going to continue. For the production year 2004 latest
news delivered reduction forecasts of slaughter and cattle herd of
abt. 2 % What do we expect?: Asia is now going to shut
down. This will calm matters a bit. Europe does not seem to
have the demand and strength to compensate this in the coming weeks. If
the correction trend of the greenback continues the market will
gain strength from that side. In total, we believe, that the near future
will see a steady to firmer trend in Europe, if the US market
does not deliver any sharp changes suddenly.
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