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What happened this week:
Another reasonably quiet week. Holidays in Europe on Monday and
Wednesday, plus the ongoing abattoir buying depressed activity by
quite a bit and also interest from Asia was fairly behind the
average activity seen in the first months of this year. The
constantly falling value of the USD is also weighing on
calculations, so that we are not particularly satisfied with the
week. Selling hides was again a subject of active sales activities
and not just a collection and decision on interest or bids. So
most of the sales were bits and pieces on cowhides and low grades.
So, most of the interest and work this week was again concentrated
on sidelines, such as sheep, lambskins, but also low grades of
calf and kips. Fortunately as these types found so little or no
interest for such a long time. Most of the market
opinions guided are either supply or demand. Many are focussed on
the supply side and arguing with the low kill and available
numbers. Others are concentrating on the demand side
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and pointing on the low production season and the
fading demand towards the summer in particular from Asia and also
from Italy. At the end we feel, that at present supply plays a
more important role, but can not be generalized for all hide types.
Regular productions of leather from bullhides are strong enough to
absorb the production and any extra will continue to support
prices. In cows we feel a bit the opposite, because here supply is
adequate and any interruption in sales and/or shipments will have
negative impacts on the market levels, not to speak about the
potential influence of the USD exchange rate.
Consequently we feel, that the markets are increasingly
volatile again. Global demand and outlook for leather business
continues to be intact, but a positive base is not anymore enough
to justify a bullish sentiment for raw material prices. The market
was a bit nervous by mid week when the news about the import stop
for 11 EU countries into Russia for EU beef, pork and poultry
reached the public. This
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could have had a negative effect on slaughter. By
this afternoon we hear, that the problems are solved on the
political level and imports are going to resume with immediate
effect. The kill: After
last weeks positive surprise numbers eased again this week in
particular on bulls. We are now for the next 8-12 weeks in the low
season and so levels will remain low and changes will be more
coincidental. What
do we expect? We are a bit confused as the one can easily understand, that the market
players dont see it all the same way. The low kill and isolated
demand is creating a more positive sentiment, than we feel is
justified. We said already a while ago, that the market should
have stayed until the end of the summer on the price levels of
March. This was a price level basically adequate for every one and
with little risk involved. The movement of abattoir
prices in April and the short term optimism in Bologna
destroyed the equilibrium and this has not been restored yet.
Short term we believe, that cow prices will face pressure, while
males are well supported
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