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What happened this week:
The summer starts early this year. General activity was once again
reasonably quiet and it seems, that business is turning more and
more into holiday mode. The regular programs with the European
customers are proceeding on a steady basis, but any additional
demand which would trigger some market action can not be
determined. Activity was also hindered by a holiday on Thursday in
most parts of Germany. So,
most activity derived this week again from overseas. The up and
down of the USD made trading almost impossible at the beginning if
the week while towards the end of the same a satisfying number of
sales where generated. In the focus of the interest were again
dairy cows which sold in acceptable volumes. However, only a very
lucky hand in the currency market made prices acceptable.
Unfortunately was the attempt
to reduce abattoir prices significantly for the month of
June unsuccessful. Various of the classical political games and
the low kill gave butchers again the
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upper hand and consequently
remain processing margins insufficient. Many do not take the increasing costs due
to the lower production and also the lighter weights into
consideration. The fight is now back on the selling side. Apart
from the seasonal effects leather business seems to be quite
intact. However, one has to realize, that tanners – at least for
mainstream products - have become more and more flexible and buy
hides increasingly with a target price system. Since we have for
quite a long time no substantial gap between global demand and
supply of hides, market volatility has declined and tanners
interest is just shifted on to the origins which are willing to
meet the target prices for raw material, whenever prices started
to move out of the target frame. With currency fluctuations,
seasonal influences of production and the massive purchasing power
of finished product buyers, hides were always available at a
certain price somewhere in the world to satisfy demand. We fail to
foresee any short term
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change as there are almost no signs, that the balance
of physical supply and demand is going to be remarkably disturbed
over the summer. Determining will be, if the European holiday
season can be compensated with enough business and shipments
overseas. The kill: The kill remains quite steady. Watching the numbers, they
are seasonally lower, but they are better than we really expected
and bottlenecks have been avoided so far. The Russian ban on EU
imports has been lifted and this negative impact has also been
lifted. We still have another 4 weeks until the holiday season
really starts and expect no real changes until then. What do we expect? We can only assume, that the market will
continue to sidestep. We can not find any reason why a new trend
will be established and changes of prices will be more a reason of
coincidence, feelings, currency or emotions. In the next weeks
most of outstanding contracts until the summer holidays will be
booked. As far as prices are concerned we expect only adjustments
to be made where previous levels are not adequate.
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