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What happened this week:
We are heading towards the holidays and it seems, that in Europe
most are quite happy to have a break insight, because the first
half of the year proved to be extremely difficult. Constant price
pressure, the lacklustre consumer market caused for many operators
in the field a difficult trading environment. Same applies also
for many tanners and only a selected number of specialty and/or
quality producers enjoyed the lower raw material price levels
being able to hold their leather prices reasonably stable. The
ongoing shift of production to China and the Eastern bloc is also
reflecting and still a number of tanners fail to accept, that
increasing volumes of raw materials find their homes eastbound.
This shift has not only its influence on the daily price levels,
but is also changing the established market rhythms in Europe.
With less influence on holiday seasons and a lead time of
shipments around 6-8 weeks the old market and trading patterns
apply now to a lesser degree and other parameters, such as
currency fluctuations and logistics
get more into the
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foreground and become increasingly influential. This
were also again the determining factors in the past week. Asian
demand remains intact, but price levels had reached their limits,
despite the firm trend in the USA. Tanners can not follow the
market anymore at least unless they can not obtain increased
leather prices for the next season. At present levels they try to
overcome the situation by buying again cheaper alternatives as
long their customer will accept the results eventually. The weak
USD is now showing its effects and has increased asking prices for
dairy cows by another USD 1-2,00 per pcs. which is at least for
the time not being obtainable. So, despite underlying interest or
even uncovered positions by some tanneries one had to bite the
dust and to accept unchanged prices or to hope for better times to
come. So, at the end the seller has to digest at present lower
revenues or to speculate for higher prices later in the summer. Sales
in general were enough to compensate for the lower kill and with
the addition of the renewal of the regular contracts in Europe
sales numbers were
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acceptable. So, the situation remains, that business
in general is not even bad, but margins remain to be depressed and
have to be corrected in the abattoir price levels eventually or in
higher selling prices following a general increase in leather
prices. However, this can if at all - not be expected before
September when in many cases new leather prices have to be
negotiated. The kill: No change. For the next 6-8 weeks the
kill will be running on the seasonal low levels.
In some categories such as high quality heavy cows the shortfall
is already difficult to manage, because for the moment most tanneries
are still operating in full and want their supplies before the
holiday shut down. What
do we expect? No changes. The market is in tight control. Generally inventory
levels are low and consequently price pressure deriving from
desperate sellers or overstocked buyers can not be expected.
Tanners are not willing or in the immediate need to lift their
buying prices at the moment and sellers arent forced to move
much either, so the currency might be the only trigger for
adjustments in terms at least for cows.
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