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What happened this week:
The main focus of the business this week was less on the purchase
and sales of hides but rather on the currency market and here in
particular on the value of the USD. During the European and US
trading hours the USD basically lost a cent per day. Not only,
that this is weighing heavily on hide prices, but eventually also
on leather prices and the entire competitiveness of the industry
in Europe. In case the speculative bubble is not adjusting soon it
will create a dangerous base for the European (leather) industry
in 2005. The trading of the week at least showed a bit more
activity than the previous ones. As we expected was there much
more interest from Asia, but calculations in the morning were
obsolete in afternoon when the USD had finished its daily descent.
This applied mainly for the bids for cows which came in as
expected in higher numbers, but were almost unworkable in view of
the currency situation and so very little business was concluded
to this direction. However, it is good to know, that interest in
Asia has not completely disappeared. News from that part of the
world are anyway more than mixed. While some tanners open their
L/Cs still completely
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regular and even quick are rumours around about some
of the largest upholstery tanners, that business is very bad with
them, they delay L/Cs, cancel contracts and lay off workers due to
the insufficient production. How far the rumours are exaggerated
or meet the reality has still to be seen. In any case it is clear,
that the automotive business in China does not meet the budgets
and also furniture leathers are in some cases
well behind schedule. We hear, that quite a few of European
suppliers are travelling in or to China at the moment and one can
assume, that this is at present not because things are so
brilliant out there. In Europe business was again a bit better and
even further and isolated sales for dairy cows into Italy were
possible. Hides for vegetable and side leathers were in reasonable
demand, although the weak USD is also here a factor of calculation
the influence is less direct and sales were concluded in
acceptable volume for bulls and heifers again. Some order books
must be still well filled and one could say, that business is not
brilliant, but much better than overseas and helping
to move at least half of the production at normal speed. Also
light
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weight material found again decent demand and it
seems, that the next three months we will have a good clearance of
all the sidelines which had been so extremely difficult for the
past two years. Price developments reflected the two sided market.
The weak USD is burdening export revenues as prices in USD
remained steady, while European sales run their normal
course between steady and moderate downside corrections. The
kill: Absolute normality. The cow kill is still running its
seasonal course and slaughter levels remain high. Under normal
conditions this should start to fade in the next weeks. However,
we understand that beef business is still quite good, weather is
cold, so the basis is laid for good slaughter also in the next
weeks. What
do we expect?
The driving factor for prices is the currency market. Although we
know, that it is not a popular opinion at the moment we believe we
have gone through the worst now. Under the condition the USD is
not taking another substantial dive we believe, that the market
enters now a period of consolidation with prices not changing very
much anymore. However, as long as the USD does not recover, there
is also little hope for higher prices .
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