What happened this week: Presently the currency market is by far more exciting than anything else. The continuing collapse of the USD value is terrifying exporters in Europe and Japan and the situation is reminding many pretty much of 2004 where we went through a similar situation until the end of the year. If the end of the story also this time is going to be the same, i.e. a sharp recovery of the greenback after  speculators took their profits and the outlook for the US economy had to be revised – well we will know in some months from now. In the meantime hide offers for overseas exports have to be revised once a day if not in hours to compensate for the decline in the USD value and we can only be happy, that the US hide market or better said the global hide market in general is still in such a good performance and has risen in prices by quite a bit over last weeks, because this has cushioned some of the currency market developments. However, in particular on lighter weight dairy cows the net EURO revenues have still suffered and we would reckon, that todays calculations vs. those of some weeks ago end with a EURO 1,50-2,00 decline in returns. Due to the general market conditions

and the still existing and comfortable sold position still not many are taking much notice of the same.  They will have to eventually. Meanwhile the market for ox/heifers and lighter and medium weight bullhides remains still in reasonably good shape. Due to the price tags of US steers the european counterparts still look attractive and are conveniently averaging price levels down. If there is one thing good about the market than the fact that European bulls found a much wider market base in Asia and are at least now an established alternative if the price spread is sufficient. In general the market continues to segment even further. In light hides it can also easily be seen. While there is still a shortage in hides in a range of lets say 5-15 kg are overweight calf and kips finding much stronger headwinds and the number of offers available from various origins for prompt shipments is high. They are just not affordable and that the hides are now suddenly available is clearly showing, that they have been relegated from a number of tanners menue sheet. To get this material some month ago was almost impossible. It is not a surprise either. Looking at the prices people have in mind per pcs. you find

easily material what is more expensive than lets say a 30 kg male hide. We would also consider, that the market for overweight bulls is also pretty much in balance now. May be even in buyers favour soon. Also here prices had been pushed in the late summer for short sighted reasons and this might have to be reconsidered in this winter again. So, one can find one or the other example here and there, that not the entire market is in such a comfortable state as it may look from a very generalized position. Sales during the week were just acceptable as far as males and heifers were concerned. Taking the bids on cows and waiting for an hour to cover the currency killed the business. The kill: The kill rose even a little higher last week and the effects of weather and the Xmas season can clearly be seen. Beef demand seems to be good for quality products and there is no reason not to believe that the present levels will not continue until Xmas. What do we expect: We repeat our concerns about the cow market. For avg. quality and weight heifers and bulls we have no worries while we would also not be too positive for prices of the extra heavy premium automotive bulls. They look also ready for a moderate adjustment . The risk is growing.