Market Report 07.03.2025
Osterhorn, Friday, 07.03.2025
The US $ in EURO: 1,0860
What happened this week
This week, it was more likely to spoil your mood than spread good cheer. There has been bad news from China since Wednesday because the Chinese customs authorities are now even starting to refuse goods that were shipped long before the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany. The American president is showing us that rules no longer apply and if this slowly becomes the political standard, business with our products will certainly become much more difficult and there will be many more surprises in store. Germany naturally lost its status as a disease-free country on the day the first and only case of foot-and-mouth disease was confirmed, but until then all certificates are valid and there is no basis for the measures taken in China. The situation was all the more surprising when it was reported from China at the same time that dairy products from Germany could be imported again. An additional problem today is that the ever-increasing automation of import operations mean that one decision, even if it is wrong, can paralyze the entire system in all ports. In addition, some sources on Chinese internet platforms have reported that raw hides are now also being offered in China for collection at slaughterhouses without prices. Otherwise, not much else happened on our markets this week either. Preparations were made for the trip to Asia, naturally with the very limited hope that the trade fair in Hong Kong would offer positive indications for the coming months. Without the market in China, it won’t be particularly easy for us from Germany and we will have to concentrate on the other markets that are not closed for us. Normally, most of today’s suppliers travel to Hong Kong with confidence. The hangover and disillusionment always came afterwards. This year, however, the mood seems to be much more subdued and we are also hearing from colleagues from other continents who have been traveling in Asia for some time that the successes and mood are not particularly positive. The general political situation and the erratic decisions are also not contributing to a more optimistic attitude. So, we now have to wait and see whether the CP party congress and its forecasts in Beijing have left a positive impression on Chinese consumers. Under this impression, the volume of sales this week was also very modest. In Europe, there are currently no major deals to be concluded. Without the market in China, leaving only random transactions in one or two export markets. However, there were no significant deals and what could be sold led to falling revenues in euros due to the weak US dollar which is another negative market factor now.
The kill
The kill remains at a relatively high level, prices for live cattle are going from record to record and no one can really explain why beef of all things can be sold now, after it has been said for years that both the demand for meat is falling and consumers are not willing to pay the prices. For the moment, everything has obviously turned around and, in addition to exports, supermarkets are now also playing the game if they want to secure their supply.
What do we expect
Even if the situation in China means that there are more likely to be only a few active visitors at the trade fair in Hong Kong, we expect the trade fair to be rather subdued in terms of business, based on everything we have seen so far. Falling prices are being reported from many regions and demand is simply not picking up to the extent required to trigger a change in sentiment, an improvement in demand and a reversal in price trends. But sometimes things turn out differently than you think, so let us be surprised next week. First of all, we look forward to seeing familiar faces from many countries again.
Price Table
Type | Weight range | Avg. green weight | Salted weight | Avg. weight salted | Price per kg | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ox | Heifers | 15/24,5 kg | 22,0/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 0,80 | Stable |
25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,65 | Weakish | |
Dairy cows | 15/24,5 kg | 22,5/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 0,50 | Weakish |
25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,50 | Weakish | |
30/+ kg | 33,5/35,5 kg | 27/+ kg | 29/31 kg | € 0,50 | Weakish | |
Bulls | 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,90 | Steady |
30/39,5 kg | 36,0/37,0 kg | 24/34 kg | 31/33 kg | € 0,90 | Steady | |
40/+ kg | 45,0/48,0 kg | 34/+ kg | 38/40 kg | € 0,95 | Steady | |
Thirds | 15/+ kg | 25,0/27,5 kg | 13/+ kg | 24/26 kg | € 0,40 | Weakish |
Thirds bulls | 30/+ kg | 38,0/40,0 kg | 24/+ kg | 33/36 kg | € 0,45 | Steady |